Thursday, May 6, 2010

If Only One Forecast Came True?

Bob Chapman
First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'...the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications ...(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.


Gerald Celente
Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.


Igor Panarin
In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000


Neithercorps
Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.


Webbots
July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.


LEAP 20/20
2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."


Joseph Meyer
Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.


Harry Dent (investor)
A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market--currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity--headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.

Sheeple: Are You A Member Of The Herd?

Millions of people from countries across the world have begun to wake up to the very real threat of repressive and engineered Globalism, or what the financial elite and the politicians who work for them often refer to as “The New World Order”. The movement against this centralization of economic and social power has gained traction in nearly every sphere, to the point where even the mainstream media has been forced on occasion to acknowledge its existence and prevalence. Those of us who have been working more than a few years in this activist organization, what many of us call the “Patriot Movement”, or the “Liberty Movement”, have seen incredible leaps and bounds in the fight against disinformation and the spread of unadulterated truth. Our work has gone viral, and our membership has skyrocketed, however, the task of diluting ignorance in the overall populace is far from over.
Every researcher, writer, and filmmaker who tackles the New World Order issue will suffer the unfortunate experience of running into people who are almost criminally uninformed, and this will happen on a regular basis. For a long time, our frustration was magnified by our inability to specifically define what it was that made these people the way they were. Were some just mentally inadequate, and unable to effectively process the facts? Were they so indoctrinated by the MSM that there was no turning back? Was there an innate difference in intuitive faculties that made some people quick in picking out a lie, and others slow? Many theories abound, but one thing was certain; in our quest to inform the masses, there were always going to be those who were incapable of hearing or understanding what we had to say, no matter how factual, rational, and refined our arguments. We now call these wonders of intellectual rustication “Sheeple”…
Sheeple can be found in every country, every ethnic background, every religious organization, and every subculture.

John Williams: A Hyper-Inflationary Great Depression Coming

Pick a financial fire and you can be sure the U.S. government will hose it down with gallons of money. AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, insolvent states, FDIC, Fannie, Freddie and all the banks are just a few of the blazes Uncle Sam has sprayed money on.
Now, the Federal Reserve is printing up another $105 billion to send to Greece to help with its debt problem. Is the bailout cycle getting ready to take another turn bailing out the Banks? You know, the ones we were told had little exposure to sour European debt? Check out this article from Bloomberg last week: JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, has a larger exposure than any of its peers toPortugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, according to Wells Fargo & Co. JPMorgan’s exposure to the five so-called PIIGS countries is $36.3 billion, equating to 28 percent of the firm’s Tier-1 capital, a measure of financial strength, Wells Fargo analysts including Matthew Burnell wrote today. Morgan Stanley holds $32.4 billion of debt in the region, which equates to 69 percent of its Tier 1 capital, Burnell wrote.”
I guess now we know why Ben Bernanke is supplying Greece with $105 billion in bailout money. It looks like he actually is bailing out U.S. Banks—again! I wrote about the Fed admitting to massive money creation 3 weeks ago in a post called “Bernanke Admits Printing $1.3 Trillion Out Of Thin Air.” It also looks like we are not going to stop this money printing train wreck because the bailouts seem to be never ending. This is the main reason we are facing a head-on collision with very big inflation.
In the latest report from John Williams of shadowstats.com, the inflation picture looks dire and definite. Williams wrote, My outlook for a hyperinflationary great depression in the United States is unchanged; all that is unfolding now is some of the detail that should lead to that ultimate financial/economic disaster. Gold remains the best long-term hedge here, along with some silver, and cash outside the U.S. dollar and the United States. I still like the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. Again, the outlook is for the long haul, irrespective of any near-term extreme volatility in the various markets. As to the U.S. stock market, the term “insanity” comes to mind as I watch some of the day-to-day movements.”

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Mexico’s illegals laws tougher than Arizona’s

Mexican President Felipe Calderon denounced as “racial discrimination” an Arizona law giving state and local police the authority to arrest suspected illegal immigrants and vowed to use all means at his disposal to defend Mexican nationals against a law he called a “violation of human rights.”

But the legislation, signed April 23 by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, is similar to Reglamento de la Ley General de Poblacion — the General Law on Population enacted in Mexico in April 2000, which mandates that federal, local and municipal police cooperate with federal immigration authorities in that country in the arrests of illegal immigrants.

Under the Mexican law, illegal immigration is a felony, punishable by up to two years in prison. Immigrants who are deported and attempt to re-enter can be imprisoned for 10 years. Visa violators can be sentenced to six-year terms. Mexicans who help illegal immigrants are considered criminals.

The law also says Mexico can deport foreigners who are deemed detrimental to “economic or national interests,” violate Mexican law, are not “physically or mentally healthy” or lack the “necessary funds for their sustenance” and for their dependents.

"This sounds like the kind of law that a rational nation would have to protect itself against illegal immigrants — that would stop and punish the very people who are violating the law," said Rep. Steve King of Iowa, ranking Republican on the House Judiciary subcommittee on immigration, citizenship, refugees, border security and international law.

"Why would Mr. Calderon have any objections to an Arizona law that is less draconian than his own, one he has pledged to enforce?" Mr. King said.

Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on terrorism and homeland security, described Mr. Calderon's comments as "hypocritical to say the least."

"I would have expected more from Mr. Calderon," said Mr. Kyl, who serves as the Senate minority whip. "We are spending millions of dollars to help Mexico fight the drug cartels that pose a threat to his government, and he doesn't seem to recognize our concerns. He ought to be apologizing to us instead of condemning us."

Mr. Kyl, along with fellow Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, has introduced a 10-point comprehensive border security plan to combat illegal immigration, drug and human smuggling, and violent crime along the southwestern border. It includes the deployment of National Guard troops, an increase in U.S. Border Patrol agents and 700 miles of fencing, along with other equipment and funding upgrades.

He said skyrocketing violence on the border, including the recent killing of an Arizona rancher by an illegal immigrant he had gone to assist, has not gone unnoticed by the public, adding that until the federal government provides the necessary funding and manpower to adequately secure the southwestern border, Arizona will not long remain the only state to pass legislation to do it on its own.

Exclusive: Oath Keepers founder slams conservative media ‘hypocrisy’

In a time of crisis, who can the people trust? Their political leadership, or fellow citizens?

Concerned the answer to that question might be turning into “neither,” Yale-educated ex-soldier and former Ron Paul organizer Stewart Rhodes hatched an idea that’s grown beyond his wildest imagination.

Now a darling of the conservative media for his military and law enforcement activist group “Oath Keepers,” Rhodes is pursued by fawning tea party organizers and promoted by people like Glenn Beck, Matt Drudge, Rush Limbaugh, Pat Buchanan and even Watergate burglary planner G. Gordon Liddy.

Though the newfound love from right-leaning pundits is certainly not lost on him, it’s not reciprocated. For as much as they laud Rhodes, push stories about Oath Keepers and link their materials, he just sees “hypocrisy” — and was not ashamed to tear down his recent promoters in an interview with RAW STORY.

Take, for example, Glenn Beck, who eagerly followed Matt Drudge in promoting Oath Keepers late last year for their pledge to “prevent dictatorship.” Though Oath Keepers is cosponsoring a Beck-organized 9/12 rally in Washington, D.C. later this year, that doesn’t mean Rhodes agrees with or even likes the flamboyant Fox TV star.

“I’m not sure where he’s at, he kinda jumps around,” Rhodes said of Beck. “He was, early on during the Ron Paul campaign, horrible to Ron Paul. He even suggested that some of his followers were potential domestic terrorists and wanted to use the military against them. So, he seems kind of erratic.”

http://www.prisonplanet.com/exclusive-oath-keepers-founder-slams-conservative-media-‘hypocrisy’.html

Bloomberg Smears Anti-Obamacare Activists As Terrorists

Despite the arrest of a Pakistani-American who authorities have been trailing for two days as the prime suspect behind the botched Times Square car bombing, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg wasted little time in smearing anti-Obamacare activists as terrorists during an appearance on CBS News last night, implying that the attack was the work of a Tea Party activist.

“If I had to guess 25 cents, this would be exactly that, somebody who’s homegrown, maybe a mentally deranged person or someone with a political agenda that doesn’t like the health care bill or something, it could be anything,” Bloomberg told Katie Couric.

Without knowing the full explanation behind the motivations of the man arrested in connection with the bombing, it seems unlikely to us that a man of Pakistani origin named Faisal Shahzad would have much to do with conservatives or Tea Party activists, which makes Bloomberg’s smear all the more insidious.

Authorities had been tracking Shahzad as the prime suspect for two days before his arrest at JFK Airport, after they discovered it was he who bought the 1993 Nissan Pathfinder from a Connecticut man about three weeks ago.

Bloomberg had to be aware of the fact that the prime suspect was a Pakistani and not a stereotypical white American anti-Obamacare activist, so why even invoke health care as a potential motivating factor behind the botched attack?

As Kurt Nimmo reported yesterday, before the identity of the culprit behind the bombing had even been hinted at, so-called “progressive” blogs and statist news websites staunchly pushed the explanation that the attack was planned by Tea Party conservatives and opponents of big government.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/bloomberg-smears-anti-obamacare-activists-as-terrorists.html

Economy To Collapse Due To Oil Spill?

NOTE: Map of closed fishing area (left)
David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is out with some very gloomy comments about the economic ramifications of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and what it will cost. First he notes the ugliest case scenario:
This spew stoppage takes longer to reach a full closure; the subsequent cleanup may take a decade. The Gulf becomes a damaged sea for a generation. The oil slick leaks beyond the western Florida coast, enters the Gulfstream and reaches the eastern coast of the United States and beyond. Use your imagination for the rest of the damage. Monetary cost is now measured in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
As for numbers:
Usually, the first estimates in any crises are too low. That is true here. 1000 barrels a day is now 5000, and some estimates of spillage are trending higher. No one knows exactly. The containment and boom mechanism is subject to weather cooperation as we can see this weekend. Soon we are entering the hurricane season. The thoughts of a storm stirring up the Gulf, hampering any cleanup or remediation drilling effort and creating a huge 10,000 square mile black stew is frightening to every professional in the business.

This will be a financial
calamity for many firms, not just BP and its partners and service providers. Their liabilities are immense and must not be underestimated. The first estimate of $12.5 billion is only a starter.
As for the economy beyond BP...
Thousands of small and independent businesses as well as larger public companies in tourism are hurt here. This is not just about the source of half the nation’s shrimp. That is already a casualty. It’s also about the bank loans for the $200,000 shrimp boat and the house the boat owner and/or his employees live in and the fact that this shock piles on a fragile financial systemthat is trying to recover from a three-year financial crisis. Case study, my fishing guide in the Everglades splits his time between Florida and Louisiana. His May bookings in LA have cancelled. His colleagues lost theirs and their lodge will be empty. They are busy trying to find work in the clean up. For him, his wife and eleven year old daughter, his $600 a day guide fees just went “poof”. When I asked him if he thought he had a legal claim on BP, he said he hadn’t thought about it yet but it gave him pause. As we suggested above, the $12.5 billion loss estimate is only a starter.
And the taxpayer...
Federal deficit spending will certainly rise by tens, and maybe hundreds, of billions as emergency appropriations are directed at larger and larger efforts to clean up this mess. At the same time, federal and state revenues tied to Gulf-region businesses will fall. My colleague John Mousseau will be discussing the impact on state and local government debt in a separate research commentary.

We expect that the Federal Reserve will extend the timeframe that we have come to know as the “extended period” in the making of its monetary policy. We do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates at all for the rest of this year, and maybe well into next year. We expect to see the deterioration of the economic statistics for the US to reveal the onset of this oil-slick crisis in May, and the negative impact will intensify during the summer months. A “double-dip” recession probably has been made more likely by this tragedy.